Radical Optionality

In the early 1990s, the digital revolution marked a shift to a new era of competition, one that was characterized by rapid business-model innovation, the dissolution of enterprise boundaries, and a blurring of industry borders.

In the early 1990s, the digital revolution marked a shift to a new era of competition, one that was characterized by rapid business-model innovation, the dissolution of enterprise boundaries, and a blurring of industry borders. These changes were driven by technology and facilitated by a very low cost of capital. Today we’re at another inflection point. The pace of change continues to accelerate as digital innovations such as AI reshape business models and shorten the timescales necessary and available for achieving strategic renewal. Moreover, climate change, geopolitical conflict, and social polarization are elevating uncertainty and volatility. Business leaders are facing choices not between a few plausible future states but rather a multitude, with each individual state being hard to describe ex ante and only recognizable ex post. It is no longer sufficient for firms to develop specific options that could secure advantage in a given future scenario. Rather they need to be able to adapt quickly to—and thrive in—any new reality.